The Keys to the White House or Good Intentions Bad Outcomes

The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President

Author: Allan J Lichtman

About the Author:
Allan J. Lichtman is professor of American history at American University, a veteran political commentator, and author of the forthcoming White Protestant Nation: The Rise of the American Conservative Movement (2008)

Jack Germond - Baltimore Sun

This is a must book for political junkies who want to answer one important question about any campaign: Who's going to win?

Toronto Sun

If you're into American presidential politics, "The Keys to the White House" is a must, and fun, read.

Roll Call

Of the hundreds of books written about presidential elections, one of the best is Allan J. Lichtman's "The Keys to the White House".

What People Are Saying

William Schneider
Do me a favor. Don't read this book. Because if you do, it could put all of us pundits and political consultants out of business. Allan Lichtman has some nerve, revealing our trade secrets to the great unwashed public. Including the biggest secret of all, which is that the presidential vote is simple, rational, and highly predictable.

David Broder
For generations, politicians, pundits, and poll-takers have been seeking their version of the Holy Grail--a surefire, guaranteed way to predict presidential elections well ahead of time. It may have been found in this book.

Table of Contents:

	Foreword
	Introduction
1	Logic of the Keys: How Presidential Elections Really Work	1
2	Turning the Keys to the Presidency	19
3	Civil War and Reconstruction	49
4	The Gilded Age	65
5	Rise and Fall of Progressivism	81
6	Depression, War, and Cold War	99
7	New Directions, War, and Scandal	123
8	Reagan and Beyond	143
9	Lessons of the Keys	159
10	Toward a New Presidential Politics	171
11	How to Bet in '96	177
	Notes	183
	Index	189
	About the Author	197

Interesting book: Heal Your Heart or Generation Extra Large

Good Intentions, Bad Outcomes: Social Policy, Informality, and Economic Growth in Mexico

Author: Santiago Levy

Despite various reform efforts, Mexico has experienced economic stability but little growth. Today more than half of all Mexican workers are employed informally, and one out of every four is poor. Good Intentions, Bad Outcomes argues that incoherent social programs significantly contribute to this state of affairs and it suggests reforms to improve the situation.

Over the past decade, Mexico has channeled an increasing number of resources into subsidizing the creation of low-productivity, informal jobs. These social programs have hampered growth, fostered illegality, and provided erratic protection to workers, trapping many in poverty. Informality has boxed Mexico into a dilemma: provide benefits to informal workers at the expense of lower growth and reduced productivity or leave millions of workers without benefits. Former finance official Santiago Levy proposes how to convert the existing system of social security for formal workers into universal social entitlements. He advocates eliminating wage-based social security contributions and raising consumption taxes on higher-income households to simultaneously increase the rate of growth of GDP, reduce inequality, and improve benefits for workers.

Good Intentions, Bad Outcomes considers whether Mexico can build on the success of Progresa-Oportunidades, a targeted poverty alleviation program that originated in Mexico and has been replicated in over 25 countries as well as in New York City. It sets forth a plan to reform social and economic policy, an essential element of a more equitable and sustainable development strategy for Mexico.

What People Are Saying

Nancy Birdsall
"This is a rare study linking misguided social programs to low productivity and wages and disappointing growth in Mexico. Clear, compelling, and worrying, justifying a bold policy prescription, from an author who knows his economics, his politics, and his Mexico."--(Nancy Birdsall, President, Center for Global Development, and former Executive Vice President of the Inter-American Development Bank)

Ravi Kanbur
"The central thesis of this monograph is that the way Mexico's social programs are structured vis-à-vis the labor market is inequitable and inefficient. This excellent book argues that such programs, which the author strongly supports, should be delivered in a manner that does not discriminate between different types of employment arrangements. Benefits should be financed with general taxes, not employment-specific contributions by firms and workers. It will become a standard reference in the development literature because although the focus of the study is Mexico, the issues considered are faced by most developing countries, in Latin America and beyond."--(Ravi Kanbur, T. H. Lee Professor of World Affairs and Professor of Economics, Cornell University, and former Chief Economist for Africa at the World Bank)

Franзois Bourguignon
"Santiago Levy demonstrates how important it is that we consider the systemic implications of individual actions when designing economic and social policies. His comprehensive analytical framework, his thorough interpretation of an unusual data set, and his acute sense of how real people behave combine to make for a fascinating and constructive critique of Mexico's social protection system that would also apply to several other emerging economies."--(François Bourguignon, Director, Paris School of Economics, and former Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of the World Bank)

James D. Wolfensohn
"Santiago Levy makes a compelling case for the reform of the Mexican social protection system. He provides a brilliant in-depth analysis of the shortcomings of the current approach that fails to achieve the basic goal of protecting those in need and also seriously harms Mexico's growth prospects."--(James D. Wolfensohn, former president of the World Bank)